"These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. Lake Powell was at 26% of capacity, 168 feet below its full elevation of 3,700 feet above sea level at . monthly forecasts become more accurate. To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. Were going to be generating less than we have in quite some time. "As a result of this update, the median water year 2022 inflow forecast into Lake Powell decreased by 800,000 acre-feet," USBR stated in a press release distributed Thursday. Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. LAKE POWELL, Utah Lake Powell water levels continue to drop, and a new report released by the Bureau of Reclamation projects the possibility America's . The reduction of releases from Lake Powell from 7.48 maf to 7.00 maf in water year 2022 resulted in a reduced release volume of 0.480 maf that normally would have been released from Glen Canyon Dam to Lake Mead as part of the 7.48 maf annual release volume, consistent with operations under the 2007 Interim Guidelines. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. google_color_link = "0000FF"; Scientists say the current drought is the driest on record in the last twelve hundred years. The March 2023 releases are anticipated to fluctuate between a low of 5,276 cfs to a high of 9,641 cfs. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. Flight Center. Lake Powell is so low that it is nearing a dead pool, in which water levels aren't high enough to deliver water downstream. . https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294, https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196, USGS site #09180500 - Colorado River near Cisco, UT, USGS site #09315000 - Green River at Green River, UT, USGS site #09379500 - San Juan River near Bluff, UT, USGS site #09380000 - Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, Snowpack Conditions Upper Colorado Region Above Lake Powell, Lake Powell Inflow Forecast April-July Inflow Forecast, Current Water Year Inflow Forecast Monthly Outlooks, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, LTEMP - Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan, Report to Congress - Operations of Glen Canyon Dam - Water Year 2015-2016, National Park Service Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, National Park Service Grand Canyon National Park, U.S. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. google_color_link = "0000FF"; The Water Desk launched in April 2019 with support from the Walton Family Foundation. However, these responses can have a noticeable impact on the river downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. The period 2000-2022 is the lowest 23-year period since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, with an average unregulated inflow of 8.29 maf, or 93 percent of the 30-year average (1991-2020). Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. As the forecast season progresses, According to Jay Lund, vice director for the Center for Watershed Sciences and a professor at the University of California, the long-term average use in the lower Colorado River Basin exceeds the long-term flow of water, meaning the only solution is to "substantially reduce water use" in the basin. As of Wednesday, the water level was 3,524.22 feet. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. In order to restore Lake Powell's levels, one expert said people must conserve water in the Colorado River's lower basin. At the same time, power producers are gearing up to craft a fallback plan for extending hydropower production at Glen Canyon Dam if water levels continue to fall. inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? Click for . She reported that, as of March 16, 2022, Lake Powell was at an elevation of 3,524.83 feet (ft.) with storage of 5.916 million acre-feet (maf) or 24 percent of capacity. According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . The bureau, in consultation with tribal nations and the seven Colorado River Basin states, decided to keep nearly 500,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell that had originally been planned to be released to the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California this year. Jian Wang of Utahs Center for Colorado River Studies says that means the projections may be too optimistic. This article contains new, firsthand information uncovered by its reporter(s). Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Geological Survey for comment. Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. levels. Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. Across the region, water utilities are in high-alert mode, preparing for another dry year on the Colorado River and holding hope that the Upper Basin reservoirs can be protected as long as possible from large-scale drought releases. "I would be reluctant to limit it to years just since 2000, because I think there is some value in acknowledging the variability that goes on in our basin," he says. (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). The model is based on weather conditions over a thirty-year span. Hourly releases during February 2023 will fluctuate from a low of approximately 5,797 cfs during the early morning hours to a high of 10,091 cfs during the afternoon and evening hours. In March 2022, it fell below a critical level of 3,525 feet above sea levelthe lake's target elevation. From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. hVmO0+_'"Bi?H!R`Mkwj3#tq@x k8,Q\yDIU>H There are continued discussions when and how that same amount of water (0.523 maf) will be . Up to 80 percent of water use in the basin is for agricultural purposes, but urban water conservation serves an important purpose, too. 15 Day Weather Forecast The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. Boats docked at Lake Powell on July 13 . But a long-term drying trend began in the year 2000. We are 41% through the Water Year. Lund said that throughout the reservoir's history, it has refilled to its original levels just once. Late last fall WAPA, which operates the electric grid and distributes the power to utilities, raised rates 30% to cover reductions in power revenue. A Tier 3 shortage would impact the amount of . Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. google_ad_height = 600; 159 0 obj
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It can store about five times the average annual flow. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. Lake Mead's water levels . That spring runoff is critical to irrigated agriculture, domestic water supplies, and the recreation industry in Colorado and the West. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. //-->, Printable Version Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. Lake Powell, Printable Version Upper Colorado Region Water Operations: Current Status: Lake Powell, Spring Snow Brings Moisture to Colorado Front Range, NASA Goddard Space A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). "This is probably the largest reservoir system in the country in terms of storage. To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. Close Become a member Login My Account Logout Search for:Search News Education Health Coloradans Equity Sun Investigation Crime and Courts Culture Sports In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. A powerful winter storm will enter AZ early Tuesday night with rain and snow showers increasing across the region after midnight. Low water effects to launch ramps and services top Lake Powell Elevation (05/18/2022) 3526.05 ft Stay in the know! Last Reading: 3521.11 on Feb 27, 2023 Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 26, 2023 There are currently 1,734,731,016,499 gallons of water in Lake Powell! Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and Gas Prices on Lake Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. google_ad_width = 160; So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". 04:12 - Source: CNN Melissa joined KNAU's team in 2015 to report on science, health, and the environment. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. This 2022 Plan is described above and available for review here: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. Previous forecasts showed this was possible and the Bureau of Reclamation announced on March 4 that a . Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. Lake Powells water levels plummeted in early 2005, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. The forecast for water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 5, 2023, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume in water year 2023 will be 9.5 maf (99 percent of average). Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. The Glen Canyon Dam annual release has initially been set to 7.00 maf, and in April 2023 Reclamation will evaluate hydrologic conditions to determine if balancing releases may be appropriate under the conditions established in the 2007 Interim Guidelines; Balancing releases will be limited (with a minimum of 7.00 maf) to protect Lake Powell from declining below elevation 3,525 feet at the end of December 2023; Balancing releases will take into account operational neutrality of the 0.480 maf that was retained in Lake Powell under the. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. On Tuesday, the lake fell below 3,525 feet above sea level, a key target elevation that water managers have been trying to keep Powell above because it provides a buffer from the minimum level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. But in a statement, she said, The Upper Basin States are working collaboratively with the Bureau of Reclamation to draft a 2022 Drought Response Operations Plan outlining potential releases from Upper Basin reservoirs in an effort to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell. Learn more at, Photos: Heron Lake, New Mexico, August 2022, Data viz: Elephant Butte Reservoir levels, to increase the volume, depth and power of journalism, https://www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/, www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/. Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. At the beginning of water year 2023, total system storage in the Colorado River Basin was 19.54 maf (33 percent of 58.48 maf total system capacity). The NOAA forecast center begins releasing monthly water supply forecasts for the Colorado River Basin in December. (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) The release volume from Glen Canyon Dam in January was 500 kaf. In addition to daily scheduled fluctuations for power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon Dam may also fluctuate to provide 40 megawatts (MW) of system regulation. U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. Under the current most probable forecast, the total water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell is projected to be 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). 2018 brought some relief after a wet winter. Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. hbbd``b`$WX)! google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. WEco is funded by multiple donors. Lake Mead was at elevation 1,064.30 ft. with storage of 8.753 maf or 34 percent of capacity. Cheap sewer pipe repairs can push toxic fumes into homes and schools heres Hard water: In these metro neighborhoods, few drink the tap water. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. Electricity produced at Lake Powells Glen Canyon Dam, which serves some 50 Colorado utilities, and dozens of others in the Colorado River Basin, has been cut in half by the 20-year drought, with power levels over the next two years projected to be 47% lower than normal, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. There is a 10 percent chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10 percent chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. Last July, to protect the 3,525 buffer zone, Reclamation ordered emergency water releases from three reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Prepared by Ashley Nielson NOAA, National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Contents Dry conditions and falling water levels were unmistakable in the image from April 13, 2003. SW Satellite Weather 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert, it'll take a long time to restore the levels, too. After decades of drought, the water level in Lake Powell has sunk to unimaginable lows, threatening millions of people who rely on the water supply. Mitchell declined to discuss the pending drought operations plan. Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. google_color_url = "426C95"; Although developing snowpack in the area is "fairly good" and might stave off dead pool in Lake Powell for another year or so, according to Lund, the solution lies with people conserving water. Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. The annual release volume from Lake Powell during water year 2023 will be 7.77 maf under the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier and will balance the contents between Powell and Mead with annual release volumes from Glen Canyon Dam between 7.00 maf and 9.50 maf as determined under Section 6.D.1 and 7.D of the Interim Guidelines as determined by the Department of the Interior as described above. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for elevations above 4000.Heavy accumulations of 10-20 are forecast above 6000, 3-8 to 4500 and several inches to valley floors. These long-term projections help water managers plan for future shortages, which are increasingly likely in the Colorado River Basin, in part because of warmer temperatures brought on by global climate change. //2006-10-04: news Along its route, the river passes through an elaborate water-management system designed to tame the yearly floods from spring snowmelt and to provide a reliable supply of water for residents as far away as California. The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. The forecast estimated that the amount of water that will flow into Lake Powell this spring and summer will be about 59% of average, based on 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. We need to get ourselves prepared," he says. The lake level began to rebound; only the 2008 image appeared to deviate from the trend toward rising water levels. The plan can be found at the following website: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. The amount of water predicted to flow into Lake Powell this year is down slightly from the previous month, according to the May report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. Much of that water. The modeling approach for WY 2023 will apply to 2024. Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water Management, National Research Council. Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast But generally below-normal precipitation the last several months after a very wet December.. Fresh Water News is an independent, non-partisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. endstream
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This is the big warning bell.. Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 11, 2023 There are currently 1,757,155,460,140 gallons of water in Lake Powell! google_ad_height = 600; google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. Antelope Point Marina on Feb. 3, 2022, in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. The northwestern side branch of Lake Powell remained cut off from the rest of the reservoir. Updated: 10:18 PM MDT April 26, 2022 DENVER Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, is part of a river system that supplies water to 40 million people. The lake is set to reach. In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. In July 2022, the lake reached a historic low of 1,040 feet above sea level. In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powells water levels. The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. So, it takes awhile to empty. `` significant year to year hydrologic variability Melissa Sevigny.... 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